ROYAL SURVEY

7 мая, 2008

Daniyar Ashimbayev

The beginning of April was marked with personnel rearrangements, formal beginning of which was initiated by the arrest of the President of National Company “Kazakhstan Temir Joly”, Jaksybek Kulekeev. 50-year old professor who started his public service 12 years ago and who made uncommon career, independent of various groups of officials, is well-known as an upright person who had never been involved in relations with corrupt structures. The way, his resignation was played out, has revoked suspicions in provocative nature of the arrest even in his opponents. It is important to mention that involvement of “power structures” during the changes of top management in large corporations is a rare practice in Kazakhstan (compared to, for example, Russia), yet it indicates the intensity level of tensions in the higher echelons of power in the country.
High level concentration of political and economical resources in hands of reasonably small group of people lead to the situation, where the main business of elite is not confronting economic crisis but attempts to retain their positions near “the white house”, including by the means of removal of those, who would, independently or by orders from the above, play an independent role. On one hand, political “successor” games had for long became a national entertainment in Kazakhstan, while on the other, economic crisis on the background of increasing chaos in management structures could easily become a political one. And even though, the level of internal instability is reasonable high, impression emerges of that the inter-elite conflicts had intensified as never before.
Yet, the means which are used by the participants of these games are limited. Discrediting-evidence war raged on the territory of the republic during the last years no matter who had initiated them resulted in grave consequences. First of all, the population and society, once and for all, lost faith in morale of the powers that be, and secondly, it became more and more complicated to surprise anyone with the new portion of disclosures. As a result, “PR-campaigns” in country are performed only for a single spectator, as it seems the last idealist of the country. Particularly, some observes think that the story with notorious “100 000 dollars” was the only mean to authorize the resignation of Kulekeeva from the post of President of KTJ …
Nevertheless, the April reshuffle had taken place, and at the end Imangali Tasmagambetow had become the akim of Astana, Ahmetdjan Esimow – the akim of Almaty, Askar Mamin – the President of “Kazakhstan Temir Joly”, whereas 47-year old Ahilbek Kurishbayev – the Minister of Agriculture.
The mayor of capital city for the last one and a half year, Askar Mamin was more known as a industrial manger and not as a politician, yet the criticism of the president on the quality of works during the preparation for the 10th anniversary of the capital gives evidences for that he was dismissed exactly as a manger. Whereas his transfer to the positions of the one of the largest national companies – proves that he has not lost credit of the president. Besides, the new appointment of Mamin pertain to his classmate prime-minister Masimov, with whom a new “road worker” had long worked together. Yet, the position of the president of KTJ could not be considered as “a good present”, all of his predecessors had left it in negative manner (as a rule, with the use of “power structures”), and some of the KTJ workers consider it to be a “cursed” position.
For the carrier of 51-year old Imangali Tasmagambetov each appointment, ironically enough, is considered to be as a growth. Transfer from the head of presidential administration in December, 2004 to the position of southern capital mayor enabled him to consolidate the image of a strong and outstanding politician, capable of managing reasonably complex, multi-faceted tasks. Yet, three and a half years at this position had proved the old observations of Tasmagambetov, while being a good tactician, often was not able to estimate strategic consequences of his actions.
His return to Astana formally for the holding of the anniversary could seriously change the power alignment in the capital. In the environment of shortage of officials with strong political will, capable of making decisions (though not always correct ones), relying on reliable team and having support in business circles, could consolidate large segments of country’s political elite, even against himself. But today the main point is that Tasmagambetov would geographically be located closer to the president’s surrounding and considerably reinforce its influence on the decision-making process.
57-year old Ahmetdjan Esimov similar to Tasmagambetov had gone through all the stages of management work in modern Kazakhstan: akim of the region, deputy prime-minister, secretary of state, the first deputy prime-minister, ambassador, minister. In the middle 1990s Esimov was perceived in the public as a second person in the country and as a potential successor, yet, instead of the position of the prime-minister, he was directed to Belgium as an ambassador, and then upon the return concentrated on the management of agricultural industry complex in the position of Minister of Agriculture and deputy prime-minister. The opinion that “agrarian would never handle the city” even though has the right for existence, is very partial. After all, the difference between Tasmagambetov and Esimov is that one was already had been a prime minister, whereas the other had time to be an ambassador.
Yet, the process of “universalization” of Kazakh officials lead to that the formal requirements to new appointees (formal education, work experience on specialty, etc.) for long had not been a matter. Political (or economical) suitability plays much greater importance. Besides, the reshuffling of administration elite on command basis, yet having many disadvantages, enables a new appointee, in a short period of time, take the control over the situation in the region (ministry, corporation). The new akim shall simply have a team of profiled specialists and coordinate with predecessor issues of personnel (and financial) provision of legal succession and situation is practically resolved.
The appointment of Esimov shall not be considered as the counterbalance to Tasmagambetov (or “the struggle against his legacy”) or implementation of “crisis management”, but as a transfer of one of the president’s counterparts to the new role. In principle, Esimov would not simply be withdrawn from the image of an agrarian, but, in successful circumstances, would gain new starting positions, which would enable him to play more active role in a big game of Kazakhstan’s politics.
Currently the situation is such that the work in the government negatively influences the image of politicians and officials, working in the system. Aggravating economic problems, which could not be practically resolved because it would require cardinal change of the policy course, or sharp change of external economic conjuncture, resulted in catastrophically few (less than one) number of candidates for the prime-minister’s position. Besides, the last administrative reforms and implementation of “corporate management principles” resulted in “confusion” in governmental institution and in center, and in regions, and in governmental-commercial sector. Old “oligarchial” system of 90s-00s has also been proved to be inoperational, because it was built on the symbiosis with authorities, non-effectiveness of which is too evident now. Moreover, considering all such super-profits, which was gained (and still is being gained) by big business from the export of mineral resources and financial-construction speculations, it has not shown even a small interest in tightening its belt, managing usual problematic zones with the help of the budget and the population. This was evidently presented on the example of financial support of banking sector, struggling against the increase of export duties on mineral resources and limitations on some products as a whole. However, the government, speaking simultaneously pro and against the big business, ended up non-capable of realizing effective social policies.
Logical result of such became the fact that the elite had transferred the responsibilities for the situation to the head of the state, who recently spoke of absolutely seditious just few years ago, maxim on that “we should not idolize the economic growth rate”.
Amid, when neither government nor private institutions are able to cardinally resolve the problems of economy (whereas the competition is completely absent), the main task is to fight for the presence in the list of “close counterparts” and constantly demonstrate loyalty and readiness to resolve “orders from the above”, while technically withdrawing from areas, where it is practically impossible to resolve anything.